TY  - JOUR
AU  - Smederevac-Lalić, Marija
AU  - Kalauzi, Aleksandar
AU  - Regner, Slobodan
AU  - Navodaru, Ion
AU  - Višnjić Jeftić, Željka
AU  - Gačić, Zoran
AU  - Lenhardt, Mirjana
PY  - 2018
UR  - http://rimsi.imsi.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1148
AB  - The relationship between the Lower Danube River level and Romanian annual catches of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata, Bennett 1835) were analyzed. For analysis of long term data on the Danube River water level and Pontic shad catch, combinations of different methods were applied using statistical programs, SPSS 13.0 and MATLAB 6. Periodograms, containing cyclic patterns, were obtained using Fourier analysis. Significant oscillations were determined with Fisher-Whittle' s tests and residuals were calculated after subtracting these significant oscillations from the original signals. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models of residuals were finally applied. Results indicated that river water levels, and especially those in May, greatly explained the fluctuations of Pontic shad catch. Annual landings varied greatly and appeared to be cyclic. Varying river flow was considered to be one of the most important factors that cause fluctuations in the size of populations. Forecast indicates gradual increase of the catch in the next decade, followed by a decrease in other decades. Estimated as a vulnerable species of fish by the IUCN, development of the forecasting model of the future catch oscillations could be very helpful to regulate fishing efforts towards the sustainable use of stocks and species conservation.
PB  - Iranian Fisheries Science Research Inst-Ifsri, Tehran
T2  - Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences
T1  - Analysis and forecast of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata) catch in the Danube River
EP  - 457
IS  - 3
SP  - 443
VL  - 17
DO  - 10.22092/IJFS.2018.116611
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Smederevac-Lalić, Marija and Kalauzi, Aleksandar and Regner, Slobodan and Navodaru, Ion and Višnjić Jeftić, Željka and Gačić, Zoran and Lenhardt, Mirjana",
year = "2018",
abstract = "The relationship between the Lower Danube River level and Romanian annual catches of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata, Bennett 1835) were analyzed. For analysis of long term data on the Danube River water level and Pontic shad catch, combinations of different methods were applied using statistical programs, SPSS 13.0 and MATLAB 6. Periodograms, containing cyclic patterns, were obtained using Fourier analysis. Significant oscillations were determined with Fisher-Whittle' s tests and residuals were calculated after subtracting these significant oscillations from the original signals. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models of residuals were finally applied. Results indicated that river water levels, and especially those in May, greatly explained the fluctuations of Pontic shad catch. Annual landings varied greatly and appeared to be cyclic. Varying river flow was considered to be one of the most important factors that cause fluctuations in the size of populations. Forecast indicates gradual increase of the catch in the next decade, followed by a decrease in other decades. Estimated as a vulnerable species of fish by the IUCN, development of the forecasting model of the future catch oscillations could be very helpful to regulate fishing efforts towards the sustainable use of stocks and species conservation.",
publisher = "Iranian Fisheries Science Research Inst-Ifsri, Tehran",
journal = "Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences",
title = "Analysis and forecast of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata) catch in the Danube River",
pages = "457-443",
number = "3",
volume = "17",
doi = "10.22092/IJFS.2018.116611"
}

Smederevac-Lalić, M., Kalauzi, A., Regner, S., Navodaru, I., Višnjić Jeftić, Ž., Gačić, Z.,& Lenhardt, M.. (2018). Analysis and forecast of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata) catch in the Danube River. in Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences
Iranian Fisheries Science Research Inst-Ifsri, Tehran., 17(3), 443-457.
https://doi.org/10.22092/IJFS.2018.116611

Smederevac-Lalić M, Kalauzi A, Regner S, Navodaru I, Višnjić Jeftić Ž, Gačić Z, Lenhardt M. Analysis and forecast of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata) catch in the Danube River. in Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences. 2018;17(3):443-457.
doi:10.22092/IJFS.2018.116611 .

Smederevac-Lalić, Marija, Kalauzi, Aleksandar, Regner, Slobodan, Navodaru, Ion, Višnjić Jeftić, Željka, Gačić, Zoran, Lenhardt, Mirjana, "Analysis and forecast of Pontic shad (Alosa immaculata) catch in the Danube River" in Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences, 17, no. 3 (2018):443-457,
https://doi.org/10.22092/IJFS.2018.116611 . .